Alternative development scenarios, local business-projects
A good many resolutions have been adopted at various levels of government concerning the need for developing alternative industries in the South Baikal Region. Most of these decisions bore no results.
"The Programme for social-economic development of Baikalsk," based on the Strategy for the development of Slyudyanskiy District for 2010-2014, may also fall victim to the re-launch of the paper factory.
This programme was presented at the Russian Ministry for Regional Development on 27 January 2010. It involves the creation of a special economic zone for the tourism industry: a mountain skiing resort, a health and wellbeing centre for staff of JSC Transneft, a gondola lift, an ice sauna, and so on. The total volume of investments these projects would attract, between 2010-2014, is up to 7bn roubles (US$ 240 million). The programme also includes a restructuring of the paper factory.
However, it turns out that in early February 2010 the Ministry for Economic Development refused to approve all the offered plans for the development of "mono-towns" (one-industry towns). Baikalsk Mayor Valeriy Pintayev was told that his town now has a working enterprise, so the federal budget would not issue finances for its redevelopment.
Altogether there are around one hundred alternative projects for Baikalsk's future development (including the suggestions received through the competition "Let's create Baikalsk's future").
There is already a strong base for their implementation, including specialists and entrepreneurs; engineering and transport infrastructure; hotels, cafes, etc; a unique natural ecosystem on the shores of Lake Baikal, a soft climate, and so on.
We would like to offer the opinion of an expert, Executive Director of "Grand Baikal" Viktor Grigorov, and other documents.
Projects offered:
- Using the productive capacity of the Baikalsk Pulp & Paper Mill (BPPM) to produce OSB and other construction materials, furniture and Dendrolight technology houses, and for recycling industrial waste. Staff: 1635. Investments needed: 10,6 billion roubles credit under 17% interest for 36 months. According to RAS analysis, the project would cover its expenditure within 30 months. By 2011, it would be ready to take on recycling the industrial waste accumulated by the paper factory.
- Using the paper plant's productive capacity to recycle wood and plant waste into beams and planks for construction.
- Developing the tourism and leisure industry; widening the infrastructure of the Gora Sobolinaya skiing resort; construction or reconstruction of resorts on the lake shores. This would require 8,4 million roubles loan over 3 years under 17% interest. The project pays back its costs within 34 months.
- Production of cedar seed extract.
- Production of beverages and drinking water.
- Development of plastics recycling.
- Manufacturing of organic fertilizer and environmentally friendly agricultural products based on sapropel.
- Manufacturing of souvenirs, development of sightseeing spots.
- Development of glass recycling and reuse.
- Refurbishment of parks.
- Development of tourist attractions and folk crafts in Utulik village.
- Development of a local online network.
- Courses and diplomas in occupations in the tourist industry.
- Mushroom farming based on industrial wood waste.
- Fish farming.
- A yacht club and diving classes.
- Stone-based crafts.
- Handmade (wicker or carved) furniture.
- Production of traditional larch roofing.
- Schools for horse-riding, dog sledges (in winter), kayaking (in summer).
This kind of projects will diversify and modernise Baikalsk's economy. It would cease to be a "mono-town" and turn into a tourist centre with elements of industry which uses human and natural resources in a sustainable way.
According to expert estimates, one job created in the Baikalsk tourist industry can support an additional 2 to 4 jobs in related industries.
If we look more closely at the plan for developing the Gora Sobolinaya skiing resort (worth up to 1bn roubles), a larger inflow of tourists would create 700 to 800 additional jobs. Imagine adding to this the prospective plant for processing cedar tree seeds (900 jobs), the entire past workforce of the paper factory would be occupied.
Currently, as the plant reopens, these alternative projects have a smaller probability of implementation. Interviews with the managers of Gora Sobolinaya show that investors who considered supporting its development are now pulling out. Irkutsk tourist firms claim their business is under threat.
In connection with the above, we have to answer the question: can the Baikalsk PPM be made ecologically sound at the level of similar industries in Finland or Canada?
Theoretically this is possible. However, this would be very expensive, so considering the age and depletion of the Baikalsk PPM one can reasonably say that it would be easier and more appropriate to set up a new factory elsewhere. This is already being considered by "Continental Management" and "Continental Invest" in the Novgorod district. Two aspects have to be taken into account here.
First, it is obvious that the Baikalsk PPM is very old and depleted. Its time for modernisation has already passed, as confirmed by its owners. Continental Management director Arkady Akimov stated, that it is impossible to reform the mill. This would require large investments, as the mill is under strict environmental limits, and its raw material base is relatively small. The mill's owners did not even bother, or manage, to introduce a closed water cycle. In this context, expecting large investments into the plant is not sensible.
Second, a working paper factory will not help Baikalsk escape its crisis situation, as it will remain a "mono-town", dependent on a single enterprise. At the next economic crisis, the same problems will arise.
Lake Baikal itself can and should be a guarantee for the town's future. This is confirmed, among other things, by the fact that were Baikalsk not on the shores of this unique lake, its problems would not have attracted as much attention. Over 300 other mono-towns suffer from the same ills.